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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Map 1 Winner 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) 100% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) 100% Volume: $356K Liquidity: $346K Closes: 11 Jul 2026
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Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5)100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5)100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5100%
O/U 2.5 Games99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.552%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.551%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs 100 Thieves (+5.5)50%
Match Winner47%
Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5)1%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5)1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5)1%
Map 2 Winner0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs 100 Thieves (+2.5)0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs 100 Thieves (+3.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs 100 Thieves (+4.5)0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.50%

Market context

The Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Semifinal 1 match between 100 Thieves and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 11 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolv…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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