Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nongshim RedForce (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-10.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+10.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Gentle Mates and Nongshim RedForce in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
We read Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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