Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-2.5) vs Gentle Mates (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-3.5) vs Gentle Mates (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-4.5) vs Gentle Mates (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-5.5) vs Gentle Mates (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-8.5) vs XLG Gaming (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-9.5) vs XLG Gaming (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-11.5) vs XLG Gaming (+11.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-4.5) vs XLG Gaming (+4.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-6.5) vs XLG Gaming (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-5.5) vs XLG Gaming (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: GM (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-2.5) vs XLG Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-3.5) vs XLG Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Gentle Mates (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-6.5) vs Gentle Mates (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: XLG Gaming (-7.5) vs Gentle Mates (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-12.5) vs XLG Gaming (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Gentle Mates (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: gentle mates vs xlg gaming (bo3) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and XLG Gaming in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for July 3 at 9:45AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Gentle Mates vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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