Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-5.5) vs Eternal Fire (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-6.5) vs Eternal Fire (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 72% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-7.5) vs Eternal Fire (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-8.5) vs Eternal Fire (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-9.5) vs Eternal Fire (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-11.5) vs Eternal Fire (+11.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Karmine Corp (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Karmine Corp (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: karmine corp vs eternal fire (bo3) - vct emea group omega. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between Karmine Corp and Eternal Fire in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 17 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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