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Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Which venue prices "Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Map 1 Winner 99% Match Winner 89% Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) 75% Map 2 Winner 70% Volume: $189K Liquidity: $250K Closes: 17 Jul 2026
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Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
99% 1% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
99% 1% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Map 1 Winner99%
Match Winner89%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)75%
Map 2 Winner70%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)69%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)60%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.551%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)50%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.550%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5)50%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-7.5) vs FURIA Esports (+7.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-8.5) vs FURIA Esports (+8.5)50%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.550%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-9.5) vs FURIA Esports (+9.5)50%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.548%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5)48%
O/U 2.5 Games32%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.525%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: leviatán esports vs furia esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha stands at 99% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Leviatán Esports and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 5:00PM ET. This mar…

Methodology

This page compares Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
and

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