Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, us open, qualification wta: jodie burrage vs guiomar maristany stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Jodie Burrage and Guiomar Maristany in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This …
Methodology
This page compares US Open, Qualification WTA: Jodie Burrage vs Guiomar Maristany specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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