Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Game Spread +/-6.5 | 100% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to china open, qualification: yiming dang vs xiaodi you. This market refers to the tennis match between Yiming Dang and Xiaodi You in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yim…
Methodology
This page compares China Open, Qualification: Yiming Dang vs Xiaodi You specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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