Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid O/U 0.5 | 85% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Villarreal CF O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid O/U 1.5 | 54% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Villarreal CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Villarreal CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 32% |
| Villarreal CF O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) | 28% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid O/U 2.5 | 27% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Villarreal CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) | 13% |
| Villarreal CF O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Villarreal CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Villarreal CF (-1.5) | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| Villarreal CF (-2.5) | 2% |
Market context
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 95%. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 23 at 11:00 AM ET.
Methodology
We read Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF - More Markets from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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