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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 79% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 65% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 53% NRFI 51% Volume: $278K Liquidity: $756K Closes: 14 Jul 2026
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Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
79% 21% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
79% 21% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.579%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.565%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.553%
NRFI51%
O/U 8.550%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets44%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.541%
Spread -1.539%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.535%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.530%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.525%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.524%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.514%
Extra Innings7%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, kansas city royals vs. new york mets stands at 79% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets, scheduled for July 7 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City R…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 79% for "Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 79% Other 21%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $278K.

Methodology

This page compares Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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Related Topics

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