Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Fnatic (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-4.5) vs Fnatic (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-5.5) vs Fnatic (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-6.5) vs Fnatic (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-8.5) vs Fnatic (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-7.5) vs Fnatic (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-4.5) vs Eternal Fire (+4.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-2.5) vs Fnatic (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-3.5) vs Fnatic (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-5.5) vs Fnatic (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-4.5) vs Fnatic (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eternal Fire (-9.5) vs Fnatic (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant match between Eternal Fire and Fnatic in the VCT EMEA Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 30 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Eternal Fire" if Etern…
Methodology
We read Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Gr… on Kalshi Alternative
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