Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 99% |
| Match Winner | 89% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 75% |
| Map 2 Winner | 70% |
| Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 69% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 60% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-7.5) vs FURIA Esports (+7.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-8.5) vs FURIA Esports (+8.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-9.5) vs FURIA Esports (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Leviatán Esports (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 32% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: leviatán esports vs furia esports (bo3) - vct americas stage 2 group alpha stands at 99% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant match between Leviatán Esports and FURIA Esports in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 16 at 5:00PM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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