Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 71% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 61% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 51% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 51% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 46% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 46% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 45% |
| Map 1 Winner | 42% |
| Map 2 Winner | 41% |
| Map 3 Winner | 40% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 4 Winner | 37% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 34% |
| Match Winner | 33% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 25% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 23% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 21% |
Market context
Market consensus: 76% chance of valorant: team vitality vs 100 thieves (bo5) - vct champions playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Lower Bracket Final match between Team Vitality and 100 Thieves in the VCT Champions Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:00 A…
Methodology
This page compares Valorant: Team Vitality vs 100 Thieves (BO5) - VCT Champions Playoffs specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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