Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 167.5 | 59% |
| O/U 168.5 | 56% |
| O/U 169.5 | 54% |
| O/U 170.5 | 52% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.5 | 47% |
| Spread -7.5 | 46% |
| Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 6.5 | 46% |
| Spread -8.5 | 42% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Points O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 35% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Shakira Austin: Assists O/U 2.5 | 32% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 18.5 | 32% |
| Shakira Austin: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 31% |
| Shakira Austin: Points O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Sonia Citron: Assists O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces | 28% |
| Sonia Citron: Points O/U 15.5 | 28% |
| Kiki Iriafen: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 24.5 | 26% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 18.5 | 26% |
| Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 26% |
| Jackie Young: Points O/U 19.5 | 26% |
| A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 25% |
| Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 12.5 | 25% |
| Sonia Citron: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 59% probability to washington mystics vs. las vegas aces. In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for August 11 at 10:00PM ET: If the Washington Mystics win, the market will resolve to "Washington Mystics". If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $96K.
Methodology
We read Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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