Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open, qualification wta: ayla aksu vs lucrezia stefanini. This market refers to the tennis match between Ayla Aksu and Lucrezia Stefanini in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
We read US Open, Qualification WTA: Ayla Aksu vs Lucrezia Stefanini from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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