Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of palermo: alevtina ibragimova vs clara burel. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Alevtina Ibragimova and Clara Burel in the Palermo, originally scheduled for July 24, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
We read Palermo: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Clara Burel from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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