Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Match O/U 21.5 | 97% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova | 79% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Match O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Match O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Game Spread +/-2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 4% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova. This market refers to the tennis match between Kristina Liutova and Tatiana Prozorova in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
We read US Open, Qualification WTA: Kristina Liutova vs Tatiana Prozorova from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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