Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to hamburg european open, qualification: jessica pieri vs maria lourdes carle. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pieri and Maria Lourdes Carle in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page compares Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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