Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova Game Spread +/-4.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of ningbo open: kamilla rakhimova vs marie bouzkova. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kamilla Rakhimova and Marie Bouzkova in the Ningbo Open, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will re…
Methodology
We read Ningbo Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Marie Bouzkova from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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