Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mubadala citi dc open: janice tjen vs rebecca sramkova. This market refers to the tennis match between Janice Tjen and Rebecca Sramkova in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 7:25PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Janice …
Methodology
This page compares Mubadala Citi DC Open: Janice Tjen vs Rebecca Sramkova specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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