Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with traffic at a near-standstill following Iran’s reversal of its reopening after reported attacks on vessels. Despite an 8 April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire, transits remain severely constrained, and the waterway is officially listed as closed by live monitoring dashboards, suspending all commercial activity after a brief reopening.

Historical patterns show that even after ceasefire agreements, shipping recovery in the Hormuz corridor is sluggish and uncertain; for instance, traffic remained at a trickle months after the April ceasefire, with persistent routing fears and insurance premiums remaining elevated. This context suggests that the current 56% implied probability of normal traffic by July 31 may be optimistic, as comparable cases indicate recovery often takes longer than anticipated amid ongoing geopolitical deadlock.

Traders should monitor scheduled diplomatic announcements, freight index movements, and any official updates from IMF PortWatch regarding transit calls. Recent reports note a spike in container freight futures and sharp rate hikes by carriers like Mediterranean Shipping Company, reflecting port-side disruption, while MarineTraffic data recorded 25 commercial vessels crossing on 18 June—the highest since reopening—but this remains far below the 60-call threshold required for market resolution [4][7]. Divergence between platforms like Polymarket (decimal odds, lower fees, minimal KYC) and Kalshi (implied probability, higher compliance, strict KYC) may affect pricing efficiency on this specific event, with Kalshi’s regulatory framework potentially slowing reaction to real-time shipping data compared to more agile, offshore alternatives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book; the other venues' contract details are maintained manually because their APIs aren't directly comparable. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.