Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 1% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 23.5 | 1% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to antalya 4: rositsa dencheva vs maria lourdes carle. This market refers to the tennis match between Rositsa Dencheva and Maria Lourdes Carle in the Antalya 4, originally scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rosits…
Methodology
We read Antalya 4: Rositsa Dencheva vs Maria Lourdes Carle from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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