Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 93% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 Winner | 93% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 21.5 | 76% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally | 57% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Game Spread +/-2.5 | 50% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 9% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of us open wta: emma navarro vs caty mcnally. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Caty McNally in the US Open WTA, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page compares US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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