Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the William P. Hobby Airport station in Houston will record its peak daily temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a figure that determines settlement for the weather prediction market. Historical data shows July 10, 2022, reached 104°F at the same location, while typical July highs in Houston average 93°F with a range of 85°F to 96°F forecast for July 2026[2][4]. The current 0% implied probability for the YES outcome suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the forecasted upper limit of 96°F being below the market’s threshold, contrasting with Polymarket’s decimal-odds format versus Kalshi’s implied-probability pricing and differing fee structures and KYC requirements across platforms.

Traders should monitor the evolving heat dome over Texas, which is building above-normal temperatures but has not yet produced a 100-degree day in 2026, according to the Houston Chronicle[8]. Scattered storms and evening rain chances continue to be forecast for the period, which could suppress peak temperatures below the century mark[7][9]. The resolution source is Wunderground’s daily high for KHOU, and any divergence between Robinhood’s climate contracts and Kalshi’s weather markets may reflect differences in how each platform weights short-term forecast volatility versus long-term climatic normals.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Houston on July 10? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.