Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability of a specific range sitting at 0%. This event occurs amid an unprecedented heatwave that has already shattered decades-old records across the northeastern United States, including a 104°F reading at LaGuardia on 3 July 2026, which broke the 1966 record by 3°F[1]. Historical context suggests that while 106°F was the highest ever recorded in NYC on 9 July in a past year[4], the current atmospheric conditions are outside the range of modern measurements, making the 0% probability a reflection of extreme uncertainty rather than a definitive forecast[1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Weather Underground, the official resolution source, and watch for any announcements regarding heatwave persistence or midnight temperature records, as LaGuardia recently hit 94°F at midnight, breaking a 2013 record[3]. The divergence between platforms like Polymarket, which uses decimal odds, and Kalshi or Betfair, which rely on implied probability, becomes critical here, as fee structures and KYC requirements vary significantly across these books, influencing liquidity and pricing efficiency for this specific market[2]. With settlement ending on 9 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the market remains highly sensitive to the final hours of data collection, where even a single degree shift could alter the outcome dramatically.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 9? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.