Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport will record its highest temperature on 12 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that peak. The current crowd-implied probability for any outcome above 88°F sits at 0%, while the frontrunner is the 72–73°F band at 30%, followed by 70–71°F at 25% [3]. Historical July data shows average highs near 72°F, with daily ranges typically spanning 67–79°F, suggesting the market is pricing in near-normal conditions rather than extreme heat [2][9].

Comparable cases from early July 2026 reinforce this calibration: on 9 July, the 68–69°F band led at 37.5%, while 10 July resolved definitively to 64–65°F at 100% probability, reflecting the city’s consistent marine moderation [1][4]. These outcomes align with climatological normals, where the warmest July day averages 72.3°F and extremes above 80°F remain rare [9]. The 0% probability on 88°F+ outcomes mirrors this pattern, as SF’s coastal geography and afternoon cloud cover routinely suppress peak temperatures.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports, which publish maximum temperatures shortly after midnight UTC, and watch for any shifts in wind strength or burn-off timing that could alter the day’s thermal profile [4][6]. Polymarket displays outcomes as implied probabilities, whereas Kalshi uses decimal odds and Betfair/Smarkets emphasise odds formats with differing fee structures and KYC thresholds—divergences that affect liquidity and execution on this specific weather contract. No announcements are pending; the sole dependency is the Wunderground-recorded high at KSFO on the settlement date [3][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.