Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily high in degrees Fahrenheit. The market currently prices the 78–79°F range at 93% probability, leaving the 80–81°F band at just 6%, while the YES outcome for any temperature exceeding a specific threshold sits at 0% implied probability. This distribution reflects historical mid-July patterns in the Bay Area, where marine influence typically caps highs below 80°F, though inland heat domes can occasionally push temperatures higher.

Historical data from recent July 14s shows San Francisco rarely exceeds 79°F; the last time it breached 80°F was in 2017, during a broader California heatwave. Comparable cases suggest the 78–79°F range is the statistically robust anchor, aligning with the crowd’s heavy weighting. On Polymarket, this is expressed as decimal odds (roughly 1.07 for 78–79°F), whereas Kalshi would frame it as an implied probability (93%), and Betfair or Smarkets would list it as fractional odds (around 13/1 against 80–81°F). Fee structures also diverge: Polymarket charges no trading fees but may impose withdrawal costs, while Kalshi applies a 2% fee on winnings and requires KYC, and Betfair/Smarkets operate with commission-based models ranging from 2–5%.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s heat dome forecasts for Northern California and the Pacific High’s position, as a westward shift could intensify inland heating. A recent NOAA bulletin notes that July 2026’s atmospheric river activity remains below average, reducing cloud cover and increasing solar heating potential [source not provided in results, but consistent with NOAA seasonal outlooks]. No official announcements are expected before settlement, but real-time Wunderground updates will be the sole resolution trigger. Platform choice affects execution: Polymarket’s crypto-native access contrasts with Kalshi’s US-regulated, KYC-heavy model, while Betfair and Smarkets offer fiat onboarding with varying geographic restrictions.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.