Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026, Seoul will experience its peak midday heat, with the Incheon International Airport station recording the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, likely due to prevailing rain and humidity dampening extreme heat.

Historically, late June in Seoul is notably hotter and more humid than early June, with average highs reaching 27–28°C and a higher chance of rain [1][7]. In 2026, forecasts indicate temperatures between 22–29°C with heavy rain and high humidity, aligning with the 0% probability that an extreme heat threshold will not be breached [4]. Polymarket users trading decimal odds may interpret this as a near-certain “NO”, whereas Kalshi traders using implied probability could see the same data as a 100% “NO” with lower fees but stricter KYC requirements [2].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for afternoon downpours, which are expected to limit daytime highs to around 26–27°C [3][5]. Recent KBS reports confirm heavy afternoon showers and no extreme heat on 25 June, reinforcing the market’s current stance [5][9]. Smarkets participants comparing fee structures may find this event less volatile than Betfair’s, where liquidity can shift rapidly with weather updates, while Kalshi’s regulated environment offers clearer settlement certainty despite higher entry barriers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live quote comes directly from the Polygon order book; the other three are listed with their platform attributes — fees, KYC, settlement currency, payment options — because a 1:1 contract comparison without API access would be guesswork.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). PolyGram routes every trade directly into Polymarket's on-chain settlement, which is why payouts land fastest.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.