Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s daytime high will be set by how hot the air gets at Haneda Airport, with this market paying out on the *single highest Celsius reading* recorded on 1 August rather than the afternoon forecast headline. Seasonal context points to a hot baseline: Tokyo’s August average maximum is around 31°C, with typical daytime highs often above 33°C, while the city’s historical August monthly mean high has recently been in the mid-30s only in exceptional years.[11][14][12]

That makes the current 0% YES crowd view look like a hard sceptical lean rather than a call that the heat is impossible. On comparable weather books, prices usually reflect the gap between a normal August day and a genuinely extreme one: Polymarket shows an 11-outcome temperature ladder with 35°C priced as the frontrunner, and it explicitly treats revisions until the next day’s first datapoint as relevant.[10] For platform comparison, Polymarket quotes prices as implied probabilities, while Kalshi and Betfair-style books are easier to read as dollars or decimal odds respectively; fee treatment and KYC reach also differ, with some venues more tightly restricted by jurisdiction than others. Smarkets, meanwhile, typically displays decimal-style market prices and charges a commission rather than embedding the spread in the same way.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast and any late-day convective heat or sea-breeze effects near Haneda, because those can move the daily maximum by a degree or two even when the broader city forecast is steady. Tokyo’s August pattern is normally humid and hot, but the actual settlement number will depend on the day’s peak observation timing at the airport station and any official post-publication revisions in the source data.[6][15][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.