Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s key risk here is the *daily high at Haneda Airport*, not a citywide average, so the market will normally be driven by the peak afternoon reading rather than overnight warmth. August in Tokyo is usually hot and humid, with average highs around 31°C, but recent July conditions have already shown the capital can push above 36°C during heatwave periods, which matters because a single clear, stagnant day can move the outcome up a full bracket.[4][11][12]

The current 0% yes price looks easy to misread on platforms that quote probabilities directly, because the relevant question is which temperature band wins at settlement rather than whether “hot weather” occurs. On Polymarket, traders see implied probabilities by band; on Kalshi, similar contracts are usually quoted in 1–99 cent prices with fees embedded differently; Betfair and Smarkets instead use decimal odds and exchange commissions, so a one-point move in the forecast can translate into a different-looking price across venues even when the underlying view is the same. That makes Haneda’s actual midday run-up more important than headline city forecasts, especially with Tokyo’s coastal airport often sitting a little below the urban core.[2][8]

For catalysts, traders should watch the Japan Meteorological Agency’s short-range updates, any change in the Pacific High pattern, and whether afternoon cloud or showers cap the high before mid-afternoon. The market description also makes settlement dependent on the highest reading recorded within the day at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on Wunderground, so a late update there can still matter until the first datapoint for the next day is published.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.