Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its peak daytime temperature, a single metric that determines the outcome of a weather prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability for the "Yes" outcome (26°C or below) sits at 0%, reflecting a near-universal trader consensus that temperatures will exceed this threshold. Historical data from AccuWeather forecasts daily highs for Haneda in July 2026 ranging between 76°F and 91°F (approximately 24°C to 33°C), while recent records show Japan hitting 41.2°C in late July 2025, with Tokyo experiencing ten consecutive days above 35°C in the same period[1][7][9].

Traders should monitor short-range ensemble forecasts and humidity levels, as mid-to-late July in Tokyo often sees temperatures climbing to 36°C to 40°C with humidity exceeding 95%, creating a "concrete jungle" effect that retains heat even after sunset[6]. The market diverges significantly across platforms: Polymarket displays implied probabilities (e.g., 38% for 31°C) with minimal fees and no KYC, whereas Kalshi and Betfair typically utilise decimal odds, enforce stricter identity verification, and apply higher fee structures that alter the effective payout for the same weather event[2][3].

The resolution relies exclusively on Wunderground data for the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day, making the 11 AM to 6 PM peak window critical for settlement[2]. With the frontrunner outcome currently set at 31°C (38% probability) and the next closest at 30°C (34%), the market pricing suggests a high likelihood of extreme heat, consistent with the trend of record-breaking July averages in Japan[2][9]. Platform choice remains the primary variable for traders, as fee structures and liquidity depth vary considerably between the permissionless model of Polymarket and the regulated environments of Kalshi or Betfair.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.