Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 24 July will be set by the afternoon peak at Haneda Airport, with the market settling to the Celsius range that contains the day’s top reading from Wunderground. A current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** is not a meaningful guide here because the contract is multi-outcome, so on Polymarket the relevant signal is the distribution across the listed temperature bands rather than a simple yes/no price. Polymarket quotes this as a probability between outcomes, while Kalshi-style markets are usually easier to compare on implied probability but still depend on contract design and fees; on Betfair and Smarkets, traders would also be factoring in exchange commission and, in some cases, different KYC access by jurisdiction.

Seasonally, late July in Tokyo is typically hot and humid, with major-city temperatures in Japan commonly ranging around the mid-20s °C to low-30s °C, and urban peaks can exceed 35°C in hotter spells.[2][3] That makes mid-to-high 20s and low 30s the most plausible settlement bands for a Haneda-based daily high, which helps explain why the current market on Polymarket has clustered around 28°C and 31°C rather than extreme outcomes.[1] For comparison, this kind of weather contract is usually more sensitive to heat-wave timing than to broad seasonal averages, so the historical frame is best read as a range, not a point estimate.[2][3]

The main catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, any Heatstroke Alert-style weather coverage, and whether Tokyo gets afternoon sun or convective cloud cover before the settlement cut-off. Traders should watch the late-morning and early-afternoon forecast revisions for central Tokyo and the airport specifically, because the recorded high can still move materially once insolation and sea-breeze effects are known. On Polymarket, order-book depth and spreads can shift quickly as new forecasts land; on Kalshi, the same event would be translated into a different contract and fee structure, while Betfair and Smarkets would typically show a less direct mapping if access or market rules differ by region.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 24? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.