Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and settled against historical weather data. July is Tokyo's peak summer month, with average highs around 32–33°C, though extreme heat waves have pushed daily maxima above 37°C in recent years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or treating this as a placeholder market with insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

Tokyo's temperature record for July sits at 39.5°C, set in 2013. Between 2019 and 2023, the city recorded five days exceeding 37°C in July alone, indicating that extreme heat is neither rare nor unprecedented. The Japan Meteorological Agency issues heat warnings when conditions approach 35°C; such advisories typically arrive 5–10 days before peak temperatures. Traders should monitor JMA forecasts released in mid-July and track whether El Niño or La Niña patterns are active, as these influence Pacific pressure systems that drive summer heat into the Kanto region.

Across prediction platforms, this market's structure reveals different approaches to weather settlement. Polymarket and Kalshi both use Wunderground as their source, though Kalshi typically offers tighter spreads on weather markets through its regulated derivatives framework, whilst Polymarket's AMM model can leave wider gaps between bid-ask. Betfair and Smarkets, conversely, rely on crowd-set odds rather than algorithmic pricing, which may produce different probability distributions if their user bases weight historical volatility differently. The 0% reading here likely reflects the market's youth rather than genuine trader consensus.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.