World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has entered its knockout phase, and the tournament is already producing high-stakes penalty moments, including Lionel Messi missing a crucial kick against Austria that denied him a scoring record[5]. This market resolves to “Yes” if the total number of missed or saved penalties during regular, stoppage, or extra time equals or exceeds a listed threshold, excluding shootout kicks. With the crowd-implied probability of a “Yes” outcome sitting at just 1%, traders are betting that the tournament will see very few missed penalties in non-shootout situations, a stance that diverges sharply from historical volatility.

Historically, penalty misses in non-shootout World Cup matches are rare but impactful; since 1982, only one penalty has been missed from 18 kicks in regular play, and the most famous miss remains Roberto Baggio’s in the 1994 final[1][6]. However, the 2026 tournament has already seen multiple missed penalties, including Germany recording three in a single match and Switzerland scoring their first non-shootout penalty after an earlier miss[3][9]. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi diverge here: Polymarket uses decimal odds reflecting implied probability with lower fees and no KYC, while Kalshi offers implied probability pricing with stricter KYC and higher regulatory oversight, affecting liquidity on this low-probability event.

Traders should monitor upcoming knockout fixtures and referee appointments, as stricter enforcement of fouls in the penalty area could increase penalty frequency and subsequent misses. Recent reports confirm the tournament is entering its decisive stages, with penalty shootouts now officially part of the group stage format, potentially altering match dynamics[1]. Betfair and Smarkets further differ by offering decimal odds with variable fee structures and broader KYC reach, which may limit access for some traders compared to Polymarket’s more open model. The key catalyst is whether referees continue to award penalties at current rates, as seen in the Paraguay-Turkey match where a 1-0 victory was secured via penalties[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.