Bitcoin price on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin will need to print a Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on 9 August, so the relevant question is less about the broader month-end trend and more about where spot is at a single noon candle. Recent reference points put Bitcoin in the mid-$64,000s: YCharts shows a daily level of $64,608.71 on 6 August, while OpenBitcoin’s August 2026 table shows a close of $64,878 on 7 August after a month-to-date rise of 3.3%[3][1]. That places the current 0% YES crowd price on Polymarket well below the sort of bands traders are currently assigning on the same event, where the leading August 9 range has been around $62,000–$64,000 and the next band around $64,000–$66,000[9]. On a comparison basis, Polymarket quotes this as implied probability, whereas Kalshi-style contracts and exchange books such as Betfair or Smarkets are usually read as decimal odds after fees, with the latter two also depending more heavily on account access, KYC and regional availability.

For a noon-close market, the main catalysts are the short-horizon macro prints and any overnight crypto move into the ET session, rather than long-dated Bitcoin narratives. Traders should watch whether BTC stays anchored near the recent $64k area through the Asian and European sessions, because a modest drift can move the 12:00 ET candle across adjacent strike bands even if the broader day looks quiet[1][3]. Binance’s own close for that exact minute is what settles the market, so exchange microstructure, liquidity at midday ET and any jump in volatility around US data or policy headlines matter more than consensus year-end forecasts. Public price trackers are already showing Bitcoin in a relatively tight range around the mid-$64,000s, which makes this a timing-sensitive market rather than a directional macro bet[12][17].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Bitcoin price on August 9? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.