GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly released a model explicitly called GPT-6, and the most relevant signal for this market is that the company’s April 2026 launch arrived as GPT-5.5, not GPT-6.[1][12][18] That matters because the contract only settles “Yes” if a model named GPT-6 is made generally available before year-end, so a precursor release under a different label does not count.[1][16][18]

The historical read-through is that numbered OpenAI launches have often slipped, been renamed, or arrived first as narrower previews rather than broad public releases. Several trackers and commentators note that OpenAI had not published an architecture, pricing, or launch date for GPT-6 during the key 2026 window, while broader estimates pushed a true public release into late 2026 or early 2027 rather than inside the market’s deadline.[1][4][9][16] Against that backdrop, a 0% crowd-implied probability is consistent with the idea that the market sees no credible path to a qualifying release by 31 December 2025, especially once the April 2026 “Spud” launch landed as GPT-5.5 instead.[1][12][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are any OpenAI product keynote, model card, blog post, or API release note that uses the exact GPT-6 name and confirms open access rather than private testing.[11][18] On a platform-comparison basis, Polymarket and Betfair usually express this as a decimal price, while Kalshi and Smarkets show a percentage-style implied probability, so the same event can look more or less “expensive” depending on the venue’s display convention; fee treatment and user access also differ materially, with KYC and jurisdiction limits often more restrictive off-platform than on a US-regulated venue. The important trade signal is not a rumoured preview, but whether OpenAI frames GPT-6 as broadly available rather than an API-only or closed beta rollout.[1][11][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We read GPT-6 released by…? from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Which platform has the deepest liquidity?

Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.