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Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Which venue prices "Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage" best? Direct comparison of Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair and Smarkets.

Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) 61% Both Teams Beat Roshan 53% Any Player Rampage 53% Any Player Ultra Kill 52% Volume: $88K Liquidity: $354K Closes: 15 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
61% 39% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
61% 39% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)61%
Both Teams Beat Roshan53%
Any Player Rampage53%
Any Player Ultra Kill52%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Ends in Daytime51%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?49%
First Blood in Game 1?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?37%
O/U 2.5 Games35%
Both Teams Beat Roshan31%
Both Teams Beat Roshan31%
Any Player Ultra Kill27%
Any Player Ultra Kill27%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks23%
Game 2 Winner22%
Game 1 Winner21%
Match Winner14%
Any Player Rampage13%
Any Player Rampage13%

Market context

The Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage prediction market currently prices this outcome at 61% YES. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 4 match between Team Resilience and Team Yandex in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET. This market will r…

Methodology

We read Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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