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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 74% Match Winner 68% Game 2 Winner 65% Game 1 Winner 62% Volume: $117K Liquidity: $897K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?74%
Match Winner68%
Game 2 Winner65%
Game 1 Winner62%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?62%
Any Player Ultra Kill52%
Any Player Rampage52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks51%
Any Player Ultra Kill51%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Ends in Daytime49%
O/U 2.5 Games48%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)41%
Any Player Rampage10%
Any Player Rampage4%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 74% YES probability for Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage. This market refers to the Dota 2 Round 1 match between Team Spirit and Xtreme Gaming in the The International Group Stage, initially scheduled for August 13 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …

Methodology

This page compares Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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