Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Dusan Lajovic in the Cincinnati Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for August 12, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page compares Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Luca Van Assche vs Dusan Lajovic specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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