Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, national bank open: alexei popyrin vs roman andres burruchaga stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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