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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair vs Smarkets for "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend" — live odds, fees and KYC side-by-side.

Match Winner 89% Game 1 Winner 81% Game 2 Winner 81% Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) 67% Volume: $64K Liquidity: $377K Closes: 8 Aug 2026
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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner89%
Game 1 Winner81%
Game 2 Winner81%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?63%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?47%
Any Player Penta Kill34%
Any Player Penta Kill34%
O/U 2.5 Games33%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: bilibili gaming vs edward gaming (bo3) - lpl group ascend stands at 89% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Bilibili Gaming and EDward Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for August 8 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "…

Methodology

This page compares LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
and

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