Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Match Winner | 72% |
| Map 3 Winner | 65% |
| Map 4 Winner | 60% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 50% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 50% |
| Map Handicap: OSG (-1.5) vs Dplus (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 5 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 4 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: OSG (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-3.5) vs Dplus (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ONSIDE GAMING (-2.5) vs Dplus (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
The Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO5) - VCL Korea: Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between ONSIDE GAMING and Dplus in the VCL Korea: Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 13 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "ONS…
Methodology
We read Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO5) - VCL Korea: Playoffs from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
Trade Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO5) - VCL Korea: … on Kalshi Alternative
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