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WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash

Cross-platform snapshot for "WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash": deepest order book, lowest fee, geo-coverage at a glance.

Tony Dunst 99% Kristen Foxen 98% Robert Eichele 97% Brian Hastings 97% Volume: $106K Liquidity: $43K
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WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
99% 1% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Go to the live market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
99% 1% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Go to the live market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Go to the live market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Go to the live market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Go to the live market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Tony Dunst99%
Kristen Foxen98%
Robert Eichele97%
Brian Hastings97%
Kathy Liebert97%
Stephen Song97%
Michael Mizrachi96%
Jeremy Ausmus96%
Chris Moneymaker96%
Alex Foxen70%
Greg Raymer57%
Stephen Chidwick51%
Martin Zamani51%
Ryuta Nakai51%
Chris Hunichen51%
Erik Seidel49%
Greg Merson49%
Gerard Piqué49%
Joe McKeehen49%
Daniel Negreanu5%
Martin Kabrhel3%
Phil Hellmuth3%
Freddy Deeb3%
Scott Seiver2%
Robert Varkonyi1%
Jason Koon0%
Joe Cada0%
Daniel Weinman0%
Damian Salas0%
Viktor Blom0%
Sean O'Malley0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 99% probability to wsop 2026 main event: which players will cash. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes the 2026 World Series of Poker Main Event, Event #82, held July 2–13, 2026, with the final table played August 3–5, 2026 in a paid finishin…

Methodology

We read WSOP 2026 Main Event: Which Players Will Cash from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
What about Smarkets as an alternative?
Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
Which platform is accessible globally?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
Are all these platforms regulated?
No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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