Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 200.5 | 96% |
| O/U 202.5 | 94% |
| O/U 204.5 | 92% |
| O/U 206.5 | 91% |
| O/U 208.5 | 88% |
| O/U 210.5 | 85% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 84% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| O/U 212.5 | 82% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 82% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 82% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| O/U 214.5 | 80% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 79% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 9.5 | 78% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 78% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| O/U 216.5 | 76% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| Heat vs. Jazz | 75% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 9.5 | 75% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 74% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 74% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 9.5 | 73% |
| O/U 218.5 | 72% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 9.5 | 72% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5 | 72% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 72% |
| Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 70% |
| 1H Moneyline | 70% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| O/U 220.5 | 68% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 68% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 4.5 | 68% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 67% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 65% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 222.5 | 64% |
| Spread -4.5 | 64% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 64% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 9.5 | 63% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 62% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 61% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 61% |
| O/U 224.5 | 60% |
| Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| Heat O/U 108.5 | 60% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 59% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| Jazz O/U 107.5 | 59% |
| Jazz O/U 101.5 | 59% |
| Heat O/U 106.5 | 59% |
| Heat O/U 110.5 | 58% |
| Jazz O/U 97.5 | 58% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 1.5 | 57% |
| Heat O/U 116.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| O/U 226.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 57.5 | 56% |
| Heat O/U 112.5 | 56% |
| Jazz O/U 99.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 55% |
| Jazz O/U 103.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| Heat 1H O/U 58.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 55.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 53.5 | 54% |
| Jazz O/U 105.5 | 54% |
| Heat O/U 114.5 | 54% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 54% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 51.5 | 54% |
| Heat 1H O/U 56.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 4.5 | 53% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| O/U 227.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 57.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 51.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| O/U 228.5 | 52% |
| Spread -7.5 | 52% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 55.5 | 52% |
| Heat 1H O/U 60.5 | 52% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Jazz O/U 109.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 51% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Heat O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 129.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 131.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 133.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 59.5 | 48% |
| Jazz O/U 110.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 48% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 14.5 | 47% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 47% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 61.5 | 47% |
| Heat 1H O/U 62.5 | 47% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 56.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 63.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 47% |
| O/U 230.5 | 46% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 59.5 | 46% |
| Heat 1H O/U 64.5 | 46% |
| Jazz O/U 115.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -9.5 | 45% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Jazz O/U 113.5 | 45% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 13.5 | 44% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 59.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 61.5 | 44% |
| Jazz O/U 117.5 | 44% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 9.5 | 43% |
| Jazz O/U 111.5 | 43% |
| Heat O/U 120.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 43% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 65.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 67.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 69.5 | 42% |
| Jazz O/U 119.5 | 42% |
| 1Q O/U 71.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -22.5 | 42% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 232.5 | 41% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| Jazz O/U 121.5 | 41% |
| Heat O/U 130.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 40% |
| Heat O/U 122.5 | 40% |
| Heat O/U 124.5 | 40% |
| Heat O/U 128.5 | 40% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 39% |
| Heat O/U 126.5 | 39% |
| Spread -11.5 | 38% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| Spread -12.5 | 37% |
| O/U 234.5 | 37% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 36% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 35% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| O/U 236.5 | 33% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5 | 31% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| Jazz 1H O/U 57.5 | 31% |
| O/U 238.5 | 30% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 29% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 29% |
| Spread -15.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5 | 28% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 27% |
| Spread -16.5 | 26% |
| O/U 240.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 12.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 14.5 | 25% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 25% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 24.5 | 25% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| Darryn Peterson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 30.5 | 24% |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% |
| O/U 242.5 | 22% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 22% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -18.5 | 21% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 20% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 20% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 19% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 19% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| O/U 244.5 | 18% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 18% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 246.5 | 16% |
| Ace Bailey: Assists O/U 3.5 | 16% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 9.5 | 16% |
| Spread -5.5 | 14% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 14% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| O/U 248.5 | 13% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -22.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 11.5 | 12% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 3.5 | 12% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Davion Mitchell: Steals O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| O/U 250.5 | 11% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Klay Thompson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 11% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Blocks O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spread -24.5 | 10% |
| Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 10% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 14.5 | 10% |
| Darryn Peterson: Steals O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 10% |
| O/U 252.5 | 9% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| Darryn Peterson: Points O/U 29.5 | 9% |
| Darryn Peterson: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 9% |
| Spread -9.5 | 8% |
| O/U 254.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 8% |
| Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5 | 8% |
| Darryn Peterson: Assists O/U 9.5 | 8% |
| Davion Mitchell: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -26.5 | 7% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 7% |
| Jaxson Hayes: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Isaiah Collier: Assists O/U 11.5 | 7% |
| Andrew Wiggins: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Pelle Larsson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 7% |
| Pelle Larsson: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| Ace Bailey: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 7% |
| Spread -11.5 | 6% |
| O/U 256.5 | 6% |
| Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 | 6% |
| Isaiah Collier: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Spread -28.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Klay Thompson: Points O/U 24.5 | 5% |
| Spread -30.5 | 4% |
| Spread -32.5 | 4% |
| Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Klay Thompson: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Isaiah Collier: Points O/U 19.5 | 4% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Klay Thompson: Assists O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Pelle Larsson: Assists O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 4% |
| Spread -34.5 | 3% |
| Spread -15.5 | 3% |
| Spread -38.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -36.5 | 2% |
Market context
The Heat vs. Jazz prediction market currently prices this outcome at 96% YES. In the upcoming NBA game between Heat and Jazz, originally scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the Heat win, the market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $422K.
Methodology
We read Heat vs. Jazz from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.
FAQ
- Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?
- Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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