Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 198.5 | 96% |
| O/U 200.5 | 95% |
| O/U 202.5 | 93% |
| O/U 204.5 | 93% |
| 1H O/U 95.5 | 92% |
| O/U 206.5 | 91% |
| 1Q O/U 46.5 | 89% |
| O/U 208.5 | 88% |
| 1H O/U 97.5 | 88% |
| Thunder O/U 105.5 | 87% |
| O/U 210.5 | 85% |
| Mavericks O/U 100.5 | 84% |
| 1H O/U 99.5 | 83% |
| O/U 212.5 | 82% |
| Thunder O/U 107.5 | 82% |
| O/U 214.5 | 79% |
| 1H O/U 101.5 | 78% |
| Mavericks O/U 102.5 | 78% |
| O/U 216.5 | 76% |
| 1H O/U 103.5 | 74% |
| O/U 218.5 | 72% |
| Mavericks O/U 104.5 | 72% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 50.5 | 71% |
| 2Q O/U 50.5 | 70% |
| Thunder O/U 111.5 | 70% |
| O/U 220.5 | 68% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 53.5 | 68% |
| Mavericks O/U 106.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 105.5 | 67% |
| Thunder vs. Mavericks | 66% |
| 1Q O/U 52.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| O/U 222.5 | 64% |
| Thunder O/U 113.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 63% |
| 1H Moneyline | 63% |
| 1H O/U 107.5 | 62% |
| Mavericks O/U 108.5 | 62% |
| O/U 224.5 | 60% |
| Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 59% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 55.5 | 59% |
| 1Q O/U 54.5 | 58% |
| Thunder O/U 115.5 | 58% |
| 1H O/U 109.5 | 57% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 52.5 | 57% |
| O/U 226.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| Spread -5.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 54.5 | 52% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 56.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Team to Score First | 50% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| O/U 228.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 48.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 50.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 53.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 55.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 110.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 117.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 112.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 119.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 114.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 121.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 116.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 123.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 118.5 | 50% |
| Thunder O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 122.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 120.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks O/U 124.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 52.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Mavericks 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 56.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 58.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 60.5 | 50% |
| Thunder 2H O/U 62.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Aday Mara: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Jared McCain: Points O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Max Christie: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 111.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Mavericks 1H O/U 54.5 | 48% |
| O/U 230.5 | 46% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5 | 45% |
| Kyrie Irving: Points O/U 20.5 | 45% |
| Spread -7.5 | 44% |
| P.J. Washington: Points O/U 14.5 | 44% |
| 2Q O/U 56.5 | 44% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 113.5 | 43% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5 | 43% |
| O/U 232.5 | 42% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5 | 42% |
| Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 6.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 58.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Thunder O/U 109.5 | 41% |
| Thunder 1H O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Spread -9.5 | 39% |
| O/U 234.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 115.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Spread -11.5 | 35% |
| O/U 236.5 | 35% |
| 2Q O/U 58.5 | 35% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 52.5 | 34% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Spread -12.5 | 31% |
| O/U 238.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 117.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -14.5 | 27% |
| O/U 240.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 27% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Kyrie Irving: Assists O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 23% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 23% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| Spread -16.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 121.5 | 22% |
| Kyrie Irving: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 21% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -18.5 | 18% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 18% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 1H O/U 123.5 | 17% |
| Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 18.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| O/U 250.5 | 12% |
| 1H O/U 125.5 | 12% |
| Spread -22.5 | 11% |
| Spread -11.5 | 10% |
| O/U 252.5 | 10% |
| Spread -24.5 | 9% |
| 1H O/U 127.5 | 9% |
| Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| O/U 254.5 | 8% |
| Spread -15.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -26.5 | 6% |
| Spread -28.5 | 5% |
| Spread -30.5 | 5% |
| Spread -34.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 2% |
| Spread -32.5 | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 96% probability to thunder vs. mavericks. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 9:30PM ET: If the Thunder win, the market will resolve to "Thunder". If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the game is …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $562K.
Methodology
We read Thunder vs. Mavericks from four platform perspectives: Polymarket (on-chain CLOB), Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), Betfair Exchange (sports book exchange), Smarkets (peer-to-peer betting exchange). Polymarket's live mid is the canonical probability; the side-by-side columns benchmark fees, KYC, settlement currency and deposit rails so you can choose the venue that fits your jurisdiction and trade size.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- Which platform is accessible globally?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
- Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?
- Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.
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Trade Thunder vs. Mavericks on Kalshi Alternative
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