Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi Alternative) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross. This market refers to the tennis match between Katie Boulter and Kayla Cross in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Katie Boult…
Methodology
This page compares National Bank Open: Katie Boulter vs Kayla Cross specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.
FAQ
- What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?
- Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.
- Which platform has the deepest liquidity?
- Polymarket — by a wide margin. Top markets reach $50-500M volume, Kalshi ~$200M cumulative, Betfair similar. Deeper liquidity means your trade moves the quote less.
- Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?
- Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.
- What about Smarkets as an alternative?
- Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.
- Are all these platforms regulated?
- No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.
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