Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas was hot on 9 August, with Weather Underground’s history page for the day showing a late-evening observation of 96.1°F at Dallas Love Field, while the market’s resolution hinges on the highest reading in the Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low box. That distinction matters because the relevant venue is Dallas Love Field, not the broader metro, and the settlement range will be decided by the final observed maximum in Fahrenheit on that station’s record for the day.[1][9][14]

The current 0% YES price is best read as a narrow, already-absorbed outcome rather than a statement that temperatures were cool. On comparable Dallas summer days, Weather Underground and National Weather Service climate pages often place the daily peak in the upper 90s or around 100°F, which is consistent with the Polymarket-style framing where traders focus on a specific observation source and a fixed outcome bucket. On Kalshi, the same event is usually quoted in decimal-like contract pricing, so 0% on Polymarket maps to a near-zero bid on Kalshi, while Betfair and Smarkets would show the same view through lay/back prices net of commission rather than a simple implied probability.[3][4][7][17]

For traders comparing books, the main catalysts are late revisions to the Weather Underground daily log and any station-data lag before the next day’s first datapoint closes the record. Polymarket’s event page explicitly says revisions inside the window can still count until the next date’s first datapoint appears, which makes the final print more important than the headline high/low summary.[3] Robinhood’s Dallas temperature market points to the same Weather Underground station source, reinforcing that the actionable dependency is the station record itself rather than a forecast feed.[14] Availability also differs: Kalshi generally requires full KYC and is US-focused, whereas Betfair and Smarkets pricing is typically spread-based with exchange-style fees and broader bookmaker-style access depending on jurisdiction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket settles via UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window runs, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD through the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse — the cleanest variant, with heavier KYC. Betfair Exchange settles in account currency (GBP/EUR), net of 2-5% commission. Smarkets follows the same model as Betfair with a lower default 2% commission.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

Is Betfair a Polymarket alternative?

Only partially. Betfair Exchange is UK-focused with a sports-betting emphasis; they have politics markets but with thinner liquidity than Polymarket. Settlement in GBP/EUR, 2-5% commission on winnings.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.