Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport's daily high temperature on 13 August 2026 will be recorded and classified into a range bracket. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual readings diverge, which occurs roughly 2–3% of the time across US airport stations during summer months.

August in Miami typically produces highs between 89–92°F, with the airport station recording readings slightly cooler than downtown due to proximity to Biscayne Bay. Historical data from the past five years shows 13 August highs of 91°F (2025), 90°F (2024), 92°F (2023), 89°F (2022), and 91°F (2021). The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this niche market or treating it as a near-certainty outcome—a common pattern on Polymarket and Kalshi for hyper-specific weather contracts where liquidity pools are thin. Kalshi's decimal-odds format and tighter KYC requirements mean fewer casual participants than Betfair's fractional-odds interface, which can inflate tail probabilities on low-volume books.

Traders should monitor the Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued by NOAA in early August 2026, as tropical systems can suppress daytime highs by 3–5°F through cloud cover and moisture. The National Weather Service Miami office publishes extended forecasts 10 days ahead; any advisory for unusual weather patterns would shift implied probabilities meaningfully. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, giving traders until early morning US Eastern time to adjust positions based on overnight forecast updates.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Miami on August 13? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Which platform is accessible globally?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Kalshi is US-only. Betfair and Smarkets are UK-restricted. Kalshi Alternative has a different geo footprint and routes to Polymarket's order book at 0% fees.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.