Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when platforms diverge on data sourcing. The current 0% implied probability suggests the crowd expects either a data-resolution dispute or confidence that no extreme heat will occur that day. LaGuardia's August average high sits around 27°C (81°F), though the station regularly records peaks between 29–32°C (84–90°F) during summer heat waves.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show volatility worth examining. The station recorded 34°C (93°F) on 13 August 2012 and 32°C (90°F) on the same date in 2016, indicating the day itself carries no particular seasonal anomaly. However, 2026 forecasting at this distance remains speculative; traders should monitor late-July and early-August 2026 weather patterns for Atlantic ridge positioning and tropical system activity. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, published monthly, will refine expectations as summer approaches.

Across platforms, this market illustrates how resolution methodology affects pricing. Kalshi and Polymarket both list weather contracts, but their fee structures (Kalshi's 2% maker/taker versus Polymarket's variable fees) and data-source transparency differ materially. Betfair and Smarkets typically require explicit settlement criteria to avoid disputes; this market's emphasis on Daily Observations over Day High & Low suggests prior platform confusion. Traders comparing books should verify whether each platform's terms match Weather Underground's actual data hierarchy before committing capital.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on August 13? specifically across Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets. The live probability is the Polymarket mid; the comparison columns summarise each venue's fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi Alternative, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement is the biggest difference between the four platforms: Polymarket on-chain in USDC (instant), Kalshi USD via CFTC (T+1), Betfair and Smarkets in local currency via bank withdrawal (T+1 to T+3). On-chain settlement clears in minutes — the fastest payout path of the four.

FAQ

Polymarket vs Kalshi — which is better?

Depends on your location. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated, US-only with full KYC. Polymarket is global, on-chain, no KYC up to $1,500. Polymarket has ~10x higher liquidity but higher regulatory risk.

What does Polymarket cost vs Kalshi?

Polymarket: 0% fees, only Polygon network costs (~$0.01/trade). Kalshi: up to 7% per trade plus spread. For high-frequency traders, Polymarket is dramatically cheaper.

What about Smarkets as an alternative?

Smarkets is a UK betting exchange with a lower default commission (2%) than Betfair. Liquidity on political markets is below Polymarket, comparable to Kalshi. Geo-blocked in many jurisdictions.

Are all these platforms regulated?

No. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated (US). Betfair and Smarkets are UK Gambling Commission licensed. Polymarket operates without explicit regulation — a different risk profile than a regulated sportsbook.

Which platform supports Klarna/SOFORT?

Directly: none. Polymarket accepts only USDC on Polygon. Kalshi Alternative offers a fiat on-ramp via Klarna or SOFORT (DE/AT/CH) and converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. T+1 processing.